Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki has issued a stern warning to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, asserting that any attempt by Addis Ababa to overwhelm Eritrea through sheer numbers or force would be a grave miscalculation. Speaking on state television and via official channels on July 20, 2025, Afwerki emphasized that Ethiopia cannot succeed merely through a “human wave attack” and urged the country to address its domestic challenges before considering external aggression .
Tensions between the two nations have escalated rapidly over the past year, fueled by renewed instability in Ethiopia’s Tigray region and Ethiopia’s long-sought ambition for access to the Red Sea. Although Ethiopian officials publicly rule out war as a means to secure that access, the rhetoric and troop deployments tell a more volatile story. Eritrea responded to Ethiopia’s port aspirations by signing security agreements with Egypt and Somalia, actions perceived in Addis Ababa as hostile posturing .
The conflict was reignited after the civil war in Tigray ended in 2022 with the Pretoria Agreement, from which Eritrea felt excluded. The region remains deeply unstable: rival factions of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) continue to fight for control, and analysts warn of a possible alliance between dissident TPLF leaders and Eritrea. Ethiopia and Eritrea have both mobilized troops along their border, raising alarms that regional war could be imminent .
Former Ethiopian president Mulatu Teshome and other political figures accuse Afwerki of exploiting divisions within the TPLF for strategic gain and undermining the peace process. Eritrean authorities have dismissed these claims, calling them politically motivated and insisting that Ethiopia’s internal faults—not Eritrean actions—are creating instability in the Horn of Africa .
Ethiopian officials, including Foreign Minister Gedion Timotheos, reaffirm that Addis Ababa remains committed to dialogue and rejects escalation, even as provocations continue. This diplomatic posture underscores the fragile peace that was once believed to have blossomed after Eritrea and Ethiopia normalized relations in 2018—before reverting to mistrust and brinkmanship .
Tigray continues to be the epicenter of the crisis, where internal power struggles—and accusations of foreign interference—threaten to unravel the Pretoria Agreement. Both regional and international observers warn that the conflict could spill beyond Ethiopia’s borders, dragging Eritrea and possibly other Horn states into open warfare. The stakes are high: instability here could destabilize humanitarian logistics across the Red Sea and escalate conflict across neighboring states, from Sudan to Somalia .
Despite aggressive rhetoric on both sides, there is still room for diplomacy. Analysts propose mediated solutions addressing Ethiopia’s existential need for sea access—such as leasing coastal land in Eritrea or forging agreements with Somaliland—balanced by Eritrea’s concerns about sovereignty. Without such breakthroughs, the current standoff risks becoming the latest chapter in a destructive cycle of war and fragmentation in the Horn.
Credit: Al Jazeera, The Guidance
