Across Africa, the past few years have upended any lingering confidence in democratic governance. Since 2020, a string of military coups—from Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Niger to Gabon—has disrupted democratic norms, especially across West and Central Africa’s so-called “coup belt” . In Mali and Burkina Faso alone, civilians initially welcomed the military’s intervention in response to state failures on security and governance, but popular support has since faded as insurgent violence and repression surged under junta rule . Even amid declining trust in civilian governments, citizens still express a strong preference for democracy over autocratic alternatives, though faith in democratic institutions is weakening .
The reversal of democratic gains is not inevitable. Countries like Senegal, Botswana, South Africa, Ghana, Liberia, Ethiopia, and Morocco held meaningful elections, with power transitions or significant shifts occurring in several. Senegal’s youthful President Bassirou Diomaye Faye and South Africa’s first-ever coalition government signaled the vibrancy—and fragility—of pluralistic politics .
Yet even bowing to elections hasn’t guaranteed democratic substance. In Gabon, Brice Oligui Nguema—who orchestrated the 2023 coup—ran in a managed presidential election in April 2025, secured nearly 95 percent of the vote, and benefited from constitutional revisions and exclusion of genuine opposition . Similarly, Mali’s junta leader Assimi Goïta and Guinea’s Mamady Doumbouya face mounting criticism for legal changes that effectively prolong their rule and eliminate opposition voices—such as dissolving all political parties or rewriting electoral structures .
In Burkina Faso, Captain Ibrahim Traoré has embraced a Pan‑African, anti‑Western platform that resonates among youth but has simultaneously postponed elections until 2029 and imposed military-led governance with reports of human rights abuses mounting . In neighboring Guinea, the junta has dissolved over 50 political parties, indefinitely delayed polls, and mounted a propaganda machine to suppress dissent. Though a constitutional referendum is now scheduled for September 2025, skepticism remains high given opposition exclusion and draft provisions allowing Doumbouya eligibility despite returning delayed elections .
The Sahel is now a geopolitical powder keg. Jihadist violence by groups such as Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin has surged, amplifying the perception that civilian governments are either unwilling or unable to secure their populations. This has coincided with the decline of Western military presence and a strategic tilt toward Russian influence via groups like Wagner or Africa Corps—reinforcing alliances among juntas in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger as they isolate themselves from ECOWAS and form the Alliance of Sahel States .
Against this backdrop, democracy in Africa faces a crossroads. The overwhelming desire for democratic governance—expressed in Afrobarometer surveys—collides with mounting disillusionment with flawed elections, corruption, and poor governance . Young Africans, in particular, are increasingly open to military alternatives when they perceive civilian institutions as stagnant or oppressive.
Policymakers and international actors face a stark choice. Supporting democratic resilience requires more than election observation: it demands governance reform, anti-corruption measures, security sector oversight, and support for civil society. Regional bodies like ECOWAS and the African Union must adopt credible sanctions and incentives, even if they initially cooperate with de facto regimes to negotiate transitions—so long as the goal remains restoring civilian rule with integrity .
In short, Africa’s democratic trajectory is neither linear nor inevitable. While coups have disrupted formal governance, elections persist—though often engineered to perpetuate de facto authoritarian control. The future of democratic governance on the continent hinges on the capacity of civic movements and reformers to reclaim political space, and on the resolve of regional partners to insist on transparency, inclusion, and genuine accountability.
Credit: Al Jazeera, The Guardian
