New data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has revealed that Nigeria imported nearly 69% of its petrol supply—about 15 billion litres—between August 2024 and October 2025, underscoring the country’s continued dependence on fuel imports despite growing domestic refining capacity.
According to the report, local refining accounted for roughly 31% of national petrol demand during the 14-month period, marking a modest but steady rise in domestic production compared to previous years.
The NMDPRA noted that the Dangote Refinery, which began operations in early 2024, played a pivotal role in the shift toward local supply, producing an average of 20 million litres of petrol daily. However, imported products continued to dominate Nigeria’s downstream market, reflecting the ongoing challenges in achieving full energy self-sufficiency.
“The data indicates that while local refining has improved, imports still remain a key component of Nigeria’s petrol supply chain,” the report stated. “The sector is currently in a transition phase, balancing the ramp-up of domestic production with ongoing import contracts and market dynamics.”
Analysts say the findings highlight the slow pace of Nigeria’s fuel market transformation, as infrastructure bottlenecks, pricing concerns, and competition from established importers continue to limit the full absorption of locally refined products.
Despite these challenges, the NMDPRA report points to gradual progress in reducing import dependence, as refineries like Dangote Refinery, Waltersmith Refinery, and the Port Harcourt Refinery (once fully operational) are expected to boost domestic capacity significantly in the coming years.
Industry observers believe the next phase of reform will hinge on pricing alignment, logistics optimization, and consistent crude supply to local refineries, enabling Nigeria to meet its national fuel demand sustainably while conserving foreign exchange.
The report also underscores the government’s broader strategy under the Renewed Hope Energy Agenda, which aims to achieve energy security, local content development, and market efficiency through strategic regulatory interventions and private sector participation.
