LAGOS—Nigeria’s crucial oil sector is poised for a modest recovery in 2026, with total liquid hydrocarbons production expected to record an uptick, according to a forecast by BMI, a Fitch Solutions company.
The projection signals that infrastructure improvements and incremental output from existing fields are beginning to stabilize the sector, moving production levels back toward Nigeria’s full capacity.
Exceeding OPEC Quota
BMI forecasts that Nigeria’s total liquid hydrocarbons production will average 1.73 million barrels per day (b/d) next year. This figure represents a 1.9% rise from the estimated 1.70 million b/d recorded in 2025.
Crucially, this projected 2026 average significantly surpasses the country’s official OPEC production quota of 1.50 million b/d. This difference is largely due to the fact that the BMI forecast includes condensate—a light crude not covered by OPEC quotas—whereas the OPEC quota applies only to crude oil.
Drivers of the Expected Uptick
The forecasted increase is attributed to two primary factors:
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Infrastructure Improvements: Sustained efforts by the Nigerian government and national oil companies to enhance security in the Niger Delta and repair key crude oil pipelines are expected to minimize production disruptions, which have been a major drag on output in recent years.
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Incremental Field Output: Existing fields are anticipated to contribute slightly more output as marginal field developments come online and routine maintenance is completed, providing a small but consistent boost to the national total.
The increase to 1.73 million b/d will be critical for Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings and budget financing, though the country will continue to balance its national production imperatives against its commitment to OPEC’s stability goals.
