China’s exports experienced a significant rebound in November 2025, climbing 5.9% year-on-year and reversing the 1.1% decline recorded in October. This growth beat market forecasts and was achieved despite a simultaneous and sharp decline in shipments to the United States and continued softness in domestic demand.
The new customs data, released on Monday, December 8, 2025, highlights a successful strategic pivot by Chinese manufacturers to new global markets, diminishing the impact of US tariffs.
The Great Diversification
The key driver behind the export recovery was a surge in demand from countries outside the United States, confirming a major structural shift in global trade as Chinese firms actively reroute their supply chains.
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US Demand Plummets: Shipments to the United States plummeted by nearly 29% year-on-year in November, marking the eighth straight month of double-digit declines, despite a recent US-China trade truce agreeing to ease some tariffs.
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European Boom: The decline in US-bound goods was more than offset by strong sales to the European Union (EU), where exports grew by an annual 14.8%. Shipments to other regions also saw robust growth, including Australia (35.8%) and the ASEAN bloc.
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High-Tech Resilience: By product, key categories showcasing China’s increasing competitiveness also saw strong growth, notably semiconductors (24.7%), ships (26.8%), and autos (16.7%).
Imports and the Record Trade Surplus
While exports recovered strongly, import growth remained sluggish, rising only 1.9% (below the 3.0% forecast). This continued weakness reflects the ongoing challenges facing China’s domestic economy, including the prolonged property sector slump and muted consumer spending.
The divergence between strong exports and weak imports led to a significant increase in the monthly trade surplus, which climbed to $111.68 billion in November.
Crucially, the cumulative trade surplus for the first 11 months of 2025 soared past the $1 trillion threshold for the first time ever, reaching $1.08 trillion—a record high that surpasses the total trade surplus recorded for the entirety of 2024.
Global Geopolitical Implications
The strong export performance, achieved despite a significant US tariff burden, has solidified the view that China has successfully neutralized the intended disruptive effect of the trade war through aggressive market diversification and manufacturing strength.
However, the massive trade surplus is now raising concerns in other major trading blocs:
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EU Friction: French President Emmanuel Macron and other European leaders have warned that the EU may introduce its own tariffs if China does not take concrete measures to address the widening trade imbalance with the bloc in the coming months.
Economists project that the strong external demand will help China meet its official annual growth target of “around 5%” for 2025, though the sustainability of growth into 2026 will hinge on whether Beijing can successfully pivot to boosting its lagging domestic consumption.
