Nigeria’s business climate maintained its upward trajectory in October 2025, as the NESG–Stanbic IBTC Business Confidence Monitor (BCM) reported a rise in the Business Confidence Index (BCI) to 111.3 points, up from 107.9 points in September.
This steady climb, with the Current Business Performance Index remaining firmly in the expansion zone (above 100), demonstrates renewed optimism among Nigerian firms, driven by improving perceptions of current business conditions, moderating inflationary pressures, and relative stability in the foreign exchange market.
The October reading represents a massive year-on-year surge, climbing 34.5 points from the 76.8 points recorded in the same period of 2024, confirming a significant recovery in business sentiment over the last year.
Sectoral Leaders of the Expansion
The positive momentum was broad-based, with all five major economic sectors recording expansion (above 100 points). However, the Manufacturing and Trade sectors recorded the strongest gains, reflecting improved supply dynamics and rising consumer demand.
| Sector | October BCI Reading | Change from September | Key Driver |
| Trade | 115.4 points | +7.8 points | Easing inflation and greater stability in the Naira exchange rate supported trading volumes. |
| Non-Manufacturing | 115.0 points | Modest Increase | Sustained activity in the construction and natural gas sub-sectors. |
| Agriculture | 111.4 points | +4.1 points | Bumper harvests and government input support programmes boosted crop production. |
| Manufacturing | 111.3 points | +8.8 points | Improved access to finance and relatively stable power supply lifted production. |
| Services | 111.0 points | +2.5 points | Sustained growth, though at a slower pace than other expansionary sectors. |
The robust rebound in Manufacturing is particularly significant, with key sub-sectors like Food, Beverage & Tobacco and Cement returning to expansion after earlier struggles.
Future Expectations Remain Upbeat
Despite the sustained positive performance, business managers remain highly optimistic about the future. The Future Business Expectation Index settled at 132.9 points for October, reflecting sustained confidence that the positive trend will continue over the next one to three months.
This optimism is largely supported by anticipated seasonal economic activity, the continuation of key policy reforms, and the belief that macroeconomic stability—particularly concerning the exchange rate and inflation—will deepen.
Lingering Constraints Dampen Full Potential
While the BCI shows strong resilience, the report warns that several structural constraints continue to temper enthusiasm and limit potential growth:
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Financing Constraints: Limited access to affordable credit remains a major bottleneck for businesses.
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High Operating Costs: Elevated commercial property and rental costs continue to strain profit margins.
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Insecurity & Power: Persistent insecurity and erratic power supply remain core challenges that erode operational efficiency.
The NESG and Stanbic IBTC stress that for Nigeria to fully unlock its economic potential, policy clarity must be improved, and structural bottlenecks must be resolved to sustain the high confidence levels demonstrated in the October BCM.
