Analysts at Citigroup have projected that global oil prices could fall to $60 per barrel by the end of 2025, citing a combination of weakening demand, rising supply, and global economic headwinds.
In a note to investors, the bank’s commodities research team said slowing industrial activity in major economies, particularly China and Europe, is expected to dampen crude consumption through the final quarter of the year. At the same time, steady production growth from non-OPEC producers such as the United States, Brazil, and Guyana is expected to add significant supply to the market.
The analysts also pointed to persistent concerns about monetary tightening in advanced economies, which could further constrain demand by slowing global trade and investment. Meanwhile, the ongoing strength of the U.S. dollar is expected to weigh on oil prices, making crude more expensive for importers using other currencies.
OPEC+ has maintained production discipline in recent months, but Citi’s analysts warned that member states may struggle to keep supply cuts in place if revenues continue to come under pressure. “If voluntary curbs are relaxed in response to fiscal needs, the downside risks to prices could intensify,” the report noted.
Oil markets have been trading in the range of $70–$75 per barrel in recent weeks, but Citi’s forecast suggests a sharper decline than most current projections. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast a more moderate outlook, citing limited supply growth in the medium term.
Energy sector stakeholders are expected to closely monitor OPEC+ policy decisions and global demand indicators as the year draws to a close. A drop to $60 per barrel would have far-reaching implications for oil-dependent economies, corporate earnings in the energy sector, and fiscal stability in producing nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, and Russia.
