Global cocoa prices have staged a strong recovery, rising more than 12% month-to-date in early December, climbing from $5,510 per ton to above $6,200. The rebound comes after six consecutive months of declines, signaling a potential end to the downward trend that lasted from June through November 2025.
The rally was largely influenced by revised global supply estimates from the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO). On November 28, the ICCO lowered its forecast for the 2024/25 global cocoa surplus to 49,000 metric tons (MT), down sharply from a previous estimate of 142,000 MT. The organization also trimmed its projection for global cocoa production in 2024/25 to 4.69 million metric tons (MMT) from 4.84 MMT.
Earlier in the year, improving weather conditions in major African producing countries, particularly Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, had fueled oversupply concerns and contributed to falling prices through the third quarter of 2025. However, more recent data from Côte d’Ivoire shows that cocoa shipments to ports totaled 804,288 MT between October 1 and December 7, a 1.8% decline from 819,425 MT recorded during the same period last year, reinforcing a tighter supply outlook.
Market analysts note that exports are expected to strengthen again by January 2026, as beans from the favorable 2025 growing season arrive at ports in larger volumes. In the meantime, the current price recovery reflects a combination of lower-than-expected global supply, investor optimism, and ongoing adjustments in the cocoa market after several months of bearish pressure.
The price rally is being closely monitored by traders, producers, and policymakers, given cocoa’s importance to West African economies and the broader global chocolate supply chain.
