As award season heats up, here are a dozen movies that could take the big prize — and how they might do it.
Anora
Courtesy of Neon
What Happens: An escort cuts a deal with an oligarch’s son. Then the gangsters get involved.
Reason to Believe: Three of the last four Palme d’Or winners have made the best picture cut for Neon — and one won (Parasite).
Reason to Doubt: Are the indie-ish Baker and his outré visions too much for some voters?
‘Blitz’
Steve McQueen (Apple)
‘Blitz’
Parisa Taghizadeh/Apple TV+
What Happens: A single mother and her son are separated in Blitz-era London.
Reason to Believe: Period cred and past Oscar darling Steve McQueen.
Reason to Doubt: Saving Private Ryan, Dunkirk, 1917: World War movies these days tend to come up short.
‘The Brutalist’
Brady Corbet (A24)
Courtesy of A24
What Happens: An architect who escaped the Holocaust makes his way to the U.S. to live an epic life.
Reason to Believe: A sweeping vision that clocks in at more than three hours.
Reason to Doubt: A sweeping vision that clocks in at more than three hours.
‘A Complete Unknown’
James Mangold (Searchlight)
Courtesy of Searchlight Pictures
What Happens: Bob Dylan plugs in at Newport, and everyone needs shelter from the storm.
Reason to Believe: After zooming ahead with Ford v Ferrari, Mangold seeks the finish line. Also, Timothée Chalamet as an icon.
Reason to Doubt: Does the rock-folk tension seem consequential enough in 2024?
‘Conclave’
Edward Berger (Focus)
Philippe Antonello/Focus Features
What Happens: A pope dies, and everyone wants the big job.
Reason to Believe: Delicious fun in serious clothing.
Reason to Doubt: Is it about enough? Also, a divisive ending.
‘Dune: Part Two’
Denis Villeneuve (Warner Bros.)
Courtesy of Warner Bros.
What Happens: More adventures of Paul Atreides as he forms new unions and wages new wars.
Reason to Believe: A franchise and a director that have been building momentum for years.
Reason to Doubt: Distant-planet epics and March releases often are forgotten.
‘Emilia Pérez’
Jacques Audiard (Netflix)
PAGE 114/WHY NOT PRODUCTIONS/PATHÉ FILMS/FRANCE 2 CINÉMA/Netflix
What Happens: Your typical Spanish-language cartel thriller/trans-themed family drama with musical elements.
Reason to Believe: The sheer audacity, the relevant topicality.
Reason to Doubt: Is the Never-Netflix voter still a thing?
‘Gladiator II’
Ridley Scott (Paramount)
Aidan Monaghan/Paramount Pictures
What Happens: A grown-up Lucius comes back to Rome to gladiate glory back to his people.
Reason to Believe: Nostalgia … for both the Roman period and the days of studio historical epics.
Reason to Doubt: “Didn’t we honor this movie in 2001?”
‘The Seed of The Sacred Fig’
Mohammad Rasoulof (Neon)
Courtesy of Neon
What Happens: A family in repressive Iran is torn apart by politics.
Reason to Believe: Geopolitical resonance and a director who escaped Iran with his movie.
Reason to Doubt: The best picture doesn’t often do long, foreign-language dramas set halfway around the world.
‘September 5’
Marianne Gebhard (Leonie Benesch),
Geoff Mason (John Magaro),
Carter (Marcus Rutherford) star in Paramount Pictures’ “SEPTEMBER 5” the film that unveils the decisive moment that forever changed media coverage and continues to impact live news today, set during the 1972 Munich Summer Olympics.
Tim Fehlbaum (Paramount)
Jürgen Olczyk/Paramount Pictures
What Happens: One day in Munich in the ABC News control room during the 1972 Olympics.
Reason to Believe: Sorkin-esque urgency about big media topics.
Reason to Doubt: Global indies can struggle without as many crewmembers and filmmakers that voters know. Plus the fraught Israeli-Palestinian backdrop.
‘Wicked’
Jon M. Chu (Universal)
Courtesy of Universal Pictures
What Happens: Witches Elphaba and Glinda begin their journeys.
Reason to Believe: Is it Cats or is it Chicago?
Reason to Doubt: Is it Chicago or is it Cats?
‘The Wild Robot’
Chris Sanders (DWA/Universal)
Universal Pictures/DreamWorks Animation
What Happens: Roz the Robot lands on an animal island and learns how to feel.
Reason to Believe: An AI movie that’s heartfelt and accessible. Also, it’s already a hit.
Reason to Doubt: Only three animated movies have ever been nominated; none have won.
Credit ; Hollywood Reporter magazine.
