Oscars 2025: The 12 Leading Contenders for Best Picture

As award season heats up, here are a dozen movies that could take the big prize — and how they might do it.

Anora

Courtesy of Neon

What Happens: An escort cuts a deal with an oligarch’s son. Then the gangsters get involved.

Reason to Believe: Three of the last four Palme d’Or winners have made the best picture cut for Neon — and one won (Parasite).

Reason to Doubt: Are the indie-ish Baker and his outré visions too much for some voters?

‘Blitz’

Steve McQueen (Apple)

‘Blitz’

Parisa Taghizadeh/Apple TV+

What Happens: A single mother and her son are separated in Blitz-era London.

Reason to Believe: Period cred and past Oscar darling Steve McQueen.

Reason to Doubt: Saving Private Ryan, Dunkirk, 1917: World War movies these days tend to come up short.

‘The Brutalist’

Brady Corbet (A24)

Courtesy of A24

What Happens: An architect who escaped the Holocaust makes his way to the U.S. to live an epic life.

Reason to Believe: A sweeping vision that clocks in at more than three hours.

Reason to Doubt: A sweeping vision that clocks in at more than three hours.

‘A Complete Unknown’

James Mangold (Searchlight)

Courtesy of Searchlight Pictures

What Happens: Bob Dylan plugs in at Newport, and everyone needs shelter from the storm.

Reason to Believe: After zooming ahead with Ford v Ferrari, Mangold seeks the finish line. Also, Timothée Chalamet as an icon.

Reason to Doubt: Does the rock-folk tension seem consequential enough in 2024?

‘Conclave’

Edward Berger (Focus)

Philippe Antonello/Focus Features

What Happens: A pope dies, and everyone wants the big job.

Reason to Believe: Delicious fun in serious clothing.

Reason to Doubt: Is it about enough? Also, a divisive ending.

‘Dune: Part Two’

Denis Villeneuve (Warner Bros.)

Courtesy of Warner Bros.

What Happens: More adventures of Paul Atreides as he forms new unions and wages new wars.

Reason to Believe: A franchise and a director that have been building momentum for years.

Reason to Doubt: Distant-planet epics and March releases often are forgotten.

‘Emilia Pérez’

Jacques Audiard (Netflix)

PAGE 114/WHY NOT PRODUCTIONS/PATHÉ FILMS/FRANCE 2 CINÉMA/Netflix

What Happens: Your typical Spanish-language cartel thriller/trans-themed family drama with musical elements.

Reason to Believe: The sheer audacity, the relevant topicality.

Reason to Doubt: Is the Never-Netflix voter still a thing?

‘Gladiator II’

Ridley Scott (Paramount)

Aidan Monaghan/Paramount Pictures

What Happens: A grown-up Lucius comes back to Rome to gladiate glory back to his people.

Reason to Believe: Nostalgia … for both the Roman period and the days of studio historical epics.

Reason to Doubt: “Didn’t we honor this movie in 2001?”

‘The Seed of The Sacred Fig’

Mohammad Rasoulof (Neon)

Courtesy of Neon

What Happens: A family in repressive Iran is torn apart by politics.

Reason to Believe: Geopolitical resonance and a director who escaped Iran with his movie.

Reason to Doubt: The best picture doesn’t often do long, foreign-language dramas set halfway around the world.

‘September 5’

Tim Fehlbaum (Paramount)

Jürgen Olczyk/Paramount Pictures

What Happens: One day in Munich in the ABC News control room during the 1972 Olympics.

Reason to Believe: Sorkin-esque urgency about big media topics.

Reason to Doubt: Global indies can struggle without as many crewmembers and filmmakers that voters know. Plus the fraught Israeli-Palestinian backdrop.

‘Wicked’

Jon M. Chu (Universal)

Courtesy of Universal Pictures

What Happens: Witches Elphaba and Glinda begin their journeys.

Reason to Believe: Is it Cats or is it Chicago?

Reason to Doubt: Is it Chicago or is it Cats?

‘The Wild Robot’

Chris Sanders (DWA/Universal)

Universal Pictures/DreamWorks Animation

What Happens: Roz the Robot lands on an animal island and learns how to feel.

Reason to Believe: An AI movie that’s heartfelt and accessible. Also, it’s already a hit.

Reason to Doubt: Only three animated movies have ever been nominated; none have won.

Credit ; Hollywood Reporter magazine.