Since fighting erupted in April 2023, Sudan’s war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has spiraled toward fragmentation, humanitarian catastrophe, and widening regional instability. Although the SAF reclaimed Khartoum and key cities like Wad Madani, RSF forces now control significant swaths of Darfur and Kordofan, where they launched drone strikes on Port Sudan in a dangerous strategic shift.
As clashes persist in Kordofan’s key highways, the SAF recaptured critical territories like Um Sumeima and al-Dashoul in mid-2025, partially lifting sieges around Kadugli. Meanwhile, the RSF continues to lay siege to SAF strongholds in Darfur and prepare for deeper territorial claims. On July 1, 2025, the RSF announced a self-declared Government of Peace and Unity, complete with passports and currency plans, aiming to administer territories under RSF control—a move condemned as a threat to Sudan’s unity.
Humanitarian conditions have deteriorated sharply. Aid groups report over 40,000 deaths in North Kordofan alone around mid-July, and more than 150,000 killed nationwide, with nearly 13 million people displaced, including over three million refugees across neighboring countries. In IDP camps, especially Zamzam and Abu Shouk, RSF-linked militias inflicted mass killings of civilians, prompting renewed international condemnation.
The economic and public service collapse is total: hospitals and clinics are defunct, schools destroyed or repurposed, and the Sudanese pound has lost over 90% of its value—leading to skyrocketing prices and widespread poverty. Aid delivery has become nearly impossible amid continued attacks and restricted access in RSF-held territories.
Efforts by the African Union, IGAD, the UN, and Western mediators have faltered. Rival peace initiatives, including Saudi-American mediation and a UK-led summit, failed in the face of geopolitical deadlock and conflicting external interests—most notably vetoes at the UN Security Council and competition between Egypt, the UAE, Iran, and Russia supporting different sides. There are indications of increasing fragmentation within the RSF itself, with data showing intra-militia violence fueled by tribal tensions and leadership disputes.
As the war marks its third year in July 2025, Sudan appears ungovernable. Analysts warn the country may be heading toward de facto partition, akin to the conflict in Libya—especially if the RSF continues asserting a separate administration while the army consolidates control of central and eastern regions. UN officials express growing alarm at spillover into neighboring states, including peacekeeper attacks in the Central African Republic.
With no effective ceasefire in place and institutional structures collapsed, the conflict’s trajectory is bleak. Sustainable peace requires a genuine ceasefire, inclusive negotiations involving all parties, emergency humanitarian corridors, and credible international coordination. Absent these, Sudan risks further descent into irreversible fragmentation, regional destabilization, and ongoing human suffering.
Credit: Africanews, Al Jazeera
