In a remarkable development for Uganda’s agriculture sector, the government expects cocoa production to rise by 29% in 2025, building on solid export performance earlier in the year. While not a traditional cocoa powerhouse, Uganda has emerged as a rising star in global cocoa markets amid regional disruptions in West Africa. The Ministry of Agriculture anticipates this sharp expansion will further bolster both earnings and export volumes as the country positions itself as a reliable supplier amid global supply challenges.
The country’s cocoa export earnings surged to a record US $68.7 million in February 2025, marking a 42% year-on-year jump compared to the previous year. Volume exports reached 7,930 metric tons, nearly triple the figures from the same period in 2024. These gains were fueled by strong international prices, improved production, and government-led support initiatives.
Agricultural officials attribute the growth to a combination of favorable global market dynamics and targeted policy interventions. Cocoa output across Uganda has nearly doubled since 2013—from 23,000 to over 52,000 metric tons in 2024. Government strategies such as distributing improved seedlings, farmer training, infrastructure upgrades, and enhanced quality assurance under the Agricultural Value Chain Development Strategy have been credited with modernizing production and facilitating access to markets, especially in the EU.
Global price pressures also played a role. Regional cocoa output in West Africa—responsible for roughly two-thirds of global supply—has been weakened by weather disruption, viruses like cocoa swollen shoot virus, and infrastructure bottlenecks. As a result, cocoa futures surged past $10,000 per metric ton in mid-2024, prompting buyers to seek alternative sources like Uganda.
Despite the positive outlook, risks remain. Climate change continues to threaten yields: one recent study found higher temperatures—three to seven degrees above optimal—could reduce yields by up to 30%. Pollination deficits also constrain output, though sustainable interventions (e.g. preserving shade, enhancing understory biomass) could lift yields by 20%.
Regionally, favorable weather conditions and increased local harvests are weighing on futures prices. However, experts caution that demand—especially from the EU—remains strong and that Uganda’s emerging traceability initiatives will help it meet regulatory thresholds like the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) by 2025.
Looking ahead, Uganda appears set to ride the global cocoa wave—but only if its production growth is matched by strategic value addition and compliance infrastructure. Current exports remain largely raw beans, leaving downstream profits to be captured abroad. For the country to fully capitalize, investments in traceability, local processing, and EU-export ready certification are essential.
In summary, Uganda’s 29% projected increase in cocoa output in 2025 reflects both a timely market opportunity and the success of domestic reforms. But to sustain this momentum and reap long-term benefits, the country must invest in climate-resilient farming practices, traceability systems, and value-chain upgrades. Otherwise, it risks being a supplier of volume—not a player in higher-value segments of the global cocoa market.
