Telecommunications operators in Nigeria and various parts of the region are projected to invest a substantial $75 billion in their network infrastructure from 2023 to 2030, with a predominant focus on advancing 4G technology.
This strategic investment aims to enhance service quality and extend telecommunication services to previously underserved and unserved communities.
Currently, Nigeria faces approximately 114 areas lacking access, affecting around 27 million Nigerians who are without connectivity.
According to the ‘2023 Mobile Economy Report for Sub-Saharan Africa’ by the Global System for Mobile Telecommunications Association (GSMA), the extensive expansion of 4G networks and the increasing deployment of 5G networks in Sub-Saharan Africa will result in a rising trend in capital expenditure (CAPEX) in the coming years.
This upward trajectory will eventually shift towards a downward trend, particularly as operators shift their focus towards generating returns on their investments.
The primary objectives in the near term will revolve around expanding network coverage and performing essential upgrades, all while operators intensify their investments to support the growing momentum behind 5G technology.
The GSMA, representing telecom operators worldwide, including those in Nigeria, anticipates that the adoption of 5G will contribute significantly to the Sub-Saharan African economy, potentially adding $11 billion in value by 2030, constituting more than six percent of the overall economic impact of mobile technology.
The majority of these 5G benefits are expected to materialize between now and 2030, particularly as some countries are in the early stages of 5G deployment, and the economic benefits will increase as the technology achieves broader scale and widespread adoption.
The GSMA’s report emphasizes that while 5G is expected to benefit various sectors of the Sub-Saharan African economy, over 32 percent of these benefits are anticipated to come from the manufacturing sector.
This is driven by applications such as smart factories, smart cities, and smart grids.
Another significant portion, 29 percent, of the benefits is expected to go to the services sector, with other sectors poised to benefit based on their capacity to integrate 5G use cases into their operations.
Although the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) reported 5G penetration at 0.83 percent a couple of months ago with approximately 500,000 subscriptions on the networks of MTN, Airtel, and Mafab Communications, the global telecom body foresees that Sub-Saharan Africa will have 226 million 5G connections by 2030, equivalent to a 17 percent adoption rate.
This growth will be primarily driven by Nigeria and South Africa, which together will account for almost half of these connections.
The region’s 5G expansion is expected to be gradual but steady, as a substantial portion of the customer base continues to migrate to 4G.
The growing demand for the Internet is accelerating the development of the 5G fixed wireless access (FWA) market in the region, with operators like Orange Botswana and Telkom South Africa already launching commercial 5G FWA services.
FWA is anticipated to serve as a primary broadband connection, simultaneously improving network coverage and providing operators with opportunities to increase their subscriber base and explore new use cases.
The GSMA’s report underscores the steady growth of unique mobile subscribers in Sub-Saharan Africa, a trend expected to continue over the next seven years, ultimately reaching nearly 700 million subscribers by the end of 2030.
This paints a promising picture of the region’s evolving telecommunications landscape and its potential for economic growth through advanced connectivity solutions.
