The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has warned that Nigeria must generate at least 27 million new formal jobs between 2025 and 2030 to forestall a spike in unemployment and underemployment. It said doing so would help maintain today’s unemployment rate of around 4.3 percent and absorb a rapidly growing labour force.
The warning was made public in a report titled “From Hustle to Decent Work: Unlocking Jobs and Productivity for Economic Transformation in Nigeria”, released at the 31st Nigerian Economic Summit (#NES31) in Abuja.
Key Findings
- Nigeria’s working-age population is projected to reach 168 million by 2030.
- To keep unemployment from rising, the NESG estimates the country must create about 4.5 million new formal jobs yearly, bringing the five-year total to 27-27.3 million.
- Without these jobs, the economy faces the risk of many entering the workforce ending up in informal, low-productivity employment.
Sectors Poised to Drive Jobs
NESG identified four sectors with strong potential to generate large numbers of quality jobs:
- Manufacturing, particularly agro-processing
- Construction
- Information and Communications Technology (ICT)
- Professional services
In total, these sectors are expected to provide about 35% (around 9.7 million) of the needed new formal jobs; manufacturing alone is expected to account for approximately 21% of job creation.
Challenges Identified
The report outlines several obstacles that threaten achieving the target:
- Low productivity levels across many sectors
- Mismatch between workforce skills and industry needs; weak outcomes in education
- A predominance of informal employment, which provides minimal social protection or security and contributes little to productivity and tax revenues
- Bottlenecks such as infrastructure deficits (in power, logistics), regulatory issues, and weak private sector depth.
Proposed Solutions: Nigeria Works Framework
To address the looming challenge, NESG proposed a national blueprint called the Nigeria Works Framework, built around six strategic pillars:
- Skills for productivity
- Sectoral engines of growth
- Enterprise development (especially for small and medium businesses)
- Upgrading and formalising the informal economy
- Strengthening institutions and improving data systems
- Making productivity a central metric for national competitiveness
Implications & Call to Action
NESG stressed that failing to act could have serious social, economic, and political consequences: rising poverty, declining living standards, and increasing social unrest.
The group urged the Federal Government, state governments, and private sector stakeholders to treat job creation and productivity improvement as urgent priorities. It says that strong political will, coordinated policy reform, effective investment in human capital, and better infrastructure will be essential.
Bottom Line
To prevent a worsening employment crisis as Nigeria’s working-age population expands, at least 27 to 27.3 million new formal jobs must be created by 2030. Priority sectors like manufacturing, ICT, construction, and professional services offer the greatest potential. But success depends on decisive reforms, support for the informal economy, enhanced skills development, and infrastructure improvements.
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