AFEX predicts a 25% and 40% increase in maize and paddy rice prices, respectively, in Nigeria this year, as outlined in their recent report released in Lagos.
The maize prices in 2023 experienced fluctuations, peaking at N550,000/mt in Q3 and closing the year at N480,000/mt, attributed to reduced input usage and the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine crisis affecting fertilizer prices.
The report also anticipates a 50% rise in cocoa and a 20% increase in sorghum prices in the domestic market, driven by declining production.
Globally, the 2024 commodity price forecast suggests a downward trend, with energy prices expected to drop by 5% in 2024 and further decrease by 0.7% in 2025.
Agriculture commodities are projected to decrease by 2% in 2024 and 3% in 2025, provided the Middle East conflict de-escalates.
Speaking at the event, AFEX’s Vice President of Financial Markets, Oluwafunto Olasemo, emphasized the complexity of factors influencing the commodities market this year.
Olasemo highlighted the need for enhanced domestic agricultural production, streamlined trade policies, and strategic reserves to mitigate market volatility and ensure food security.
The report recommends adopting sustainable farming practices, such as diversified crop rotation, to optimize soil capacity and increase productivity.
Reflecting on the past year, the global commodities market faced turbulence due to energy scarcity, geopolitical tensions, and financial crises, resulting in a 24% decline from its 2022 peak.
The Nigerian commodities market experienced trickle-down effects from inflation and economic reforms, with growth in the first three quarters of 2023 at 0.63%, a significant drop from 1.90% in the same period of 2022.
Agriculture commodities witnessed price surges, mainly due to supply shortages resulting from low production and increased international demand.
